Diaspora election news digest

SERBIA
ELECTION WATCH

Issue 05  |  Saturday, 31 October 2026
After the vote: the first post-election edition

Produced by informal Serbian diaspora organisations supporting student-led demands for democracy, the rule of law and accountability.

Also published online: 1152.nl/en/serbia-election-watch

Executive summary

Serbia has chosen. Now the handover must be protected.

In a record turnout on 25 October, the Student List won an outright majority and Aleksandar Vučić conceded the same night. International observers praised citizens' engagement but found an uneven playing field. Within days, prosecutors opened files on long-stalled cases and the head of the public broadcaster resigned.

But the transition is fragile. Reports that Vučić came close to resisting the result by force, his warning that supporters may "self-organise", and incidents around pro-government media show why the weeks until the new government takes office matter. This edition sets out what happened, what to watch, and how the international community can help: by staying vigilant, and by respecting the process Serbia's citizens have chosen.

Sources: Preliminary results from the Republic Electoral Commission, 30 October, 20:35 (8,339 of 8,392 polling stations); diaspora figures from Danas, 28 October (92 of 93 overseas polling stations).

In this issue

Students win outright majority as Vučić concedes

Serbia has voted out the government that has ruled since 2012. The latest count from the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), as of 20:35 on 30 October with 8,339 of 8,392 polling stations processed, gives the Student List 53.03% (2,349,777 votes) against 38.97% (1,726,554) for Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia, on a turnout of 69.0%, the highest this century. Apart from national-minority lists, no other list crossed the threshold; Ivica Dačić's SPS fell short at 2.13%. On these figures, the Student List would hold about 141 of 250 seats, an absolute majority, and United Serbia about 103. RIK will allocate seats only once results are final. Vučić conceded at around 21:35 on election night.

Voting will be repeated on Sunday 1 November at 53 polling stations in 23 municipalities: 31 where results could not be determined and 22 where voting was annulled. These stations are too few to change the overall result, but they push back final results, now expected around 12–13 November at the earliest on our reading of the legal deadlines. The new National Assembly must then convene within 30 days, and a government must be elected within 90 days after that. A presidential election must also be called by 27 November and held by 27 December.

The students say the work is not finished until every mandate is secured, and that the victory is a beginning rather than an end: their original demands for accountability are still unmet.

Sources: RIK results · N1 on the repeat voting · CRTA assessment and timeline · N1 on the concession · Vreme on next steps · Students: "Victory obliges us"

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Defeated, not gone: why Vučić still needs watching

Vučić conceded, but he has not left the stage. His list keeps about 103 seats, loyalists still hold key positions in the courts, media and security services, and the outgoing government controls the police until a new one is sworn in.

The Times reports that he came close to resisting the result by force on election night. Former anti-terrorism police chief Spasoje Vulević told the paper that some 4,000 police and 3,000 hired men had been deployed in central Belgrade, and that he was "100 per cent sure" Vučić planned to refuse the result. MEP Sandro Gozi said diplomatic sources had warned on election day that Vučić was ready to stage a coup. Student List candidate Radomir Saičić said there had been a plan to overturn a close result by force, abandoned after calls from the police and others. Vučić's spokeswoman said the police presence was a response to threats of protester violence. These are claims by named sources, not established facts.

Commentators warn that the danger has not passed. An analysis by the BETA news agency, published by EUalive, describes Vučić as the main threat to stability: he still commands the security apparatus and large funds, and signals that he does not intend to wait long to return. Ferenc Németh (CEPA) warns that loyalists in the courts, media and security institutions may obstruct change, while Dimitar Keranov (German Marshall Fund) expects Vučić to remain politically relevant, with December's presidential election as the first test. Read alongside his warning that supporters may have to "self-organise" (Feature 04), the weeks until the new government takes office are the riskiest of the transition.

Sources: The Times, 27 October · EUalive/BETA analysis · CEPA, Ferenc Németh · The Parliament Magazine

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Observers: high turnout, but an uneven playing field

The joint international observation mission of OSCE/ODIHR, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, PACE and the European Parliament praised high turnout, strong citizen engagement and a positively assessed election day in the vast majority of polling stations observed. It also found widespread misuse of public resources, pressure on voters and public-sector employees, pronounced media bias in favour of United Serbia, and physical violence against polling staff, citizen observers and journalists.

CRTA recorded ballot photography and pressure on polling boards at every second polling station, and no consistent check for prior voting at 29%. It also received reports of voters moved without their consent to polling stations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Austria. CRTA credits the absence of large-scale manipulation largely to the many citizens who served on polling boards and as observers.

Sources: OSCE/ODIHR preliminary statement, 26 October · CRTA preliminary assessment, 26 October · Danas election-day reporting

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Celebrations, provocations and a call for vigilance

Celebrations filled Belgrade and other cities, and crowds dismantled the pro-government Ćacilend camp on election night. On 26 October, several dozen people entered TV Informer during a live broadcast and confronted editor-in-chief Dragan J. Vučićević; police later pushed back the crowd outside. Nova.rs reports that a car-smashing scene outside TV Pink the same night was staged; this is unconfirmed.

Vučić called the intrusion "monstrous violence" and warned that SNS supporters may have to "self-organise" if the state does not act.

The students urged calm on election night and, on 26 October, explicitly distanced themselves from entering newsrooms or institutions. On 28 October they warned publicly that a staged incident at Informer was being planned for that evening, to be blamed on them, and urged citizens not to respond. They have also launched a volunteer clean-up of graffiti and public spaces.

On 28 October, 1152 Holandija wrote to representatives of the international community, urging them to safeguard the election result and a peaceful, constitutional transfer of power. It asks European institutions to take the students' warning seriously, monitor developments closely and raise their concerns directly with the Serbian authorities, before tensions escalate.

Full letter: Read the letter of 28 October (PDF).

Sources: KoSSev on the second night · N1/Nova.rs on Pink · N1 on Vučić's warning · Students' warning on X

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Prosecutors move within 48 hours of the vote

Supreme Public Prosecutor Zagorka Dolovac formed a commission on 27 October and ordered every prosecutor's office in Serbia to give it access to case files. Its first stop was the Belgrade Higher Public Prosecutor's Office, which handles a number of high-profile cases, including the Novi Sad canopy collapse that sparked the student-led protests. Nova.rs reports that the commission is also examining the dismissal of a criminal complaint over Vučić's pardon of 49 people.

Stopping the shredding. On 29 October Dolovac issued a further binding instruction, ordering all chief prosecutors to ask the police to prevent the destruction of official records in state institutions, banks, the BIA security agency and military intelligence. Belgrade's anti-corruption prosecutors ordered police to seize bags of shredded paper that union members say came from the pension fund (PIO), and to look into complaints against its director Relja Ognjenović, an SNS Main Board member. Police will also check a complaint that the fund mailed a letter from Vučić to all pensioners. In Novi Sad, police secured several sacks of documents after citizens reported records being removed from a state institution and the local administration.

Not everyone trusts the reviewers. On 29 October the Belgrade Bar Association demanded the resignation of Dolovac herself, along with Belgrade Higher Prosecutor Nenad Stefanović, Constitutional Court president Vladan Petrov and Belgrade Higher Court president Dragan Milošević. The Association holds them most responsible for human rights violations and for using their office to protect the former government.

Organised-crime prosecutor Mladen Nenadić has asked the police and the Tax Administration to restore joint task forces disbanded in 2025–26, including one investigating finances linked to the railway project. In Novi Sad, the head of the city's economy department was detained on suspicion of negligent supervision causing alleged damage of 83 million dinars (see News in brief).

The students stress that judging wrongdoing is a task for freed institutions, not the movement: those responsible will answer "institutionally" once the new MPs are sworn in.

Sources: KRIK · Danas on the first cases reviewed · Nova.rs on the pardons · Nova.rs on the task forces · N1 on the instruction against shredding · Insajder on the PIO case and Novi Sad · Insajder on the Bar Association

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Upheaval at the public broadcaster and beyond

RTS director Manja Grčić resigned on 28 October, a day after an open letter from the Student List. The letter demanded the resignation of RTS management and all news editors, an interim management agreed with the RTS unions, and public explanations within seven days from four members of the media regulator REM who voted against including Informer in election monitoring. The students say they will "free the media in Parliament", through institutions rather than the street.

RTS Novi Sad bureau editor Milan Srdić says two lists of "unsuitable" journalists exist, one inside RTS and one inside a political party; he has not published documents. Student List representative Nemanja Karović told RTS that Telekom Srbija paid Informer €500,000–700,000 a month; this has not been independently confirmed. Separately, the union at Nova and Radar protests cost cuts announced by their new owner Alpac, including the end of Nova's print edition from 1 November.

Sources: Student List letter to RTS and REM · N1 on Grčić · N1 on Srdić · RTS interview with Karović · Nova and Radar union letter

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How the world should respond

Leaderless is the design, not a gap. Much international coverage describes the students as winning "despite" having no leader. The movement was built that way: decisions are taken by direct vote in open plenums, and its rulebook is designed to stop any individual rising above them. Eric Gordy (UCL) says voters trusted the students precisely because they stood apart from the political establishment. Ilija Srdanović heads the list, but he is not a party leader in the usual sense. Partners should engage with the movement's institutions and collective decisions rather than look for a single interlocutor. Vedran Džihić (University of Vienna) notes that the real test will be filling posts such as prime minister and interior minister without breaking that model.

Don't push. The students campaigned on sovereignty, and their foreign-policy platform keeps Serbia's refusal to impose sanctions on Russia. Vuk Vuksanović (King's College London) expects foreign policy to change less than any other area, citing gas prices, Kosovo and public disillusionment with the West. Dimitar Keranov (German Marshall Fund) warns against labelling the new government pro-EU straight away, and Ferenc Németh (CEPA) notes that the students want citizens to decide on EU membership when the time is right. Only 35% of Serbs currently see EU membership as a good thing, and part of that scepticism is rooted in Brussels. On visits between 2021 and 2024, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen repeatedly praised Vučić's reform record, and she met him again in October 2025 while protesters were being detained, drawing criticism in Serbia and from the European Greens. Berta López Domènech (European Policy Centre) argues that the EU's complacency towards Vučić bred dissatisfaction with the EU even among traditionally pro-European Serbians.

Demanding sanctions or an accession timetable now would feed Vučić's long-standing narrative of foreign interference and risk pushing Serbia away. The better yardstick is the students' own agenda: the rule of law, media freedom and the fight against corruption, which already overlaps with what the EU asks of Serbia.

Sources: The Loop (ECPR) on the movement's rulebook · Times Higher Education · The Parliament Magazine · Al Jazeera · CEPA · European Policy Centre · European Western Balkans on von der Leyen · European Greens on the 2025 visit · Meduza on sanctions

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News in brief

• The diaspora votes 73% for the students: With 92 of 93 overseas polling stations counted, the Student List won 72.7% abroad and SNS 24.7%, on a turnout of 78.73% (79,320 of 102,147 registered voters). The students took more than 95% in The Hague, Dublin, Oslo, Lisbon, New York, Los Angeles, London and Zagreb; SNS won every polling station in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Danas
• Violence on election day: Incidents were reported in Pančevo, Kovin, Niš, Leskovac and Pavlovac, including attacks on journalists and a CRTA observer. The EU Delegation said it was "deeply concerned". Danas
• Canopy dossier names senior officials: Two members of the academic inquiry commission publish a book alleging political interference and financial irregularities in the Novi Sad station project. These are their allegations, not judicial findings. Radar
• Claimed attempt to withdraw 1 billion dinars: Student List representative Nemanja Karović says staff stopped an attempted withdrawal from Poštanska štedionica and informed the central bank and prosecutors. The bank, still run by management appointed under the former government, called the claim false and said no such attempt took place. RTS · Danas
• Criminal complaints against Vučić and the central bank governor: Democratic Party leader Srđan Milivojević says he has filed a complaint against Vučić with the organised-crime prosecutor over the Sky ECC messages published by Radar (see Issues 02 and 04), and a second against National Bank governor Jorgovanka Tabaković over a currency transfer for Alta banka. These are the complainant's claims; prosecutors have not commented. N1
• A wave of resignation demands: Since the vote, staff, unions and parents have demanded that directors step down at schools, theatres, universities, and cultural and health institutions; one tracker has logged more than 30 such demands in four days. At Radio Belgrade, the deputy editor-in-chief of the First Programme has offered her resignation, and the editor-in-chief says he will step down once an acting RTS director is appointed. N1 on Radio Belgrade · Raspad sistema tracker
• Belgrade cancels farm subsidies: The city cancelled five 2026 subsidy calls for farmers on 28 October without giving a reason, after telling farmers who had already applied that the money would not be paid. Students at the Faculty of Agriculture see it as political manipulation by the outgoing government, aimed at spreading panic and intimidating people before the new government takes office, and warn that those responsible will be held to account. City notice · N1
• Novi Sad official detained: Saša Bilinović, head of the city's economy department, was detained on suspicion of negligent supervision of 126 city-funded projects, with alleged damage of 83.26 million dinars. He is a suspect; no charges have been filed. 021.rs

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Key dates ahead

• Sunday 1 November: Second anniversary of the Novi Sad canopy collapse; students have called a commemorative gathering in Novi Sad. Students' call
  The same day, 07:00–20:00, voting is repeated at 53 polling stations. N1
• Around 12–13 November at the earliest: Final election results; any further challenges would delay them again.
• By 27 November: A presidential election must be called, to be held by 27 December.
• Within 30 days of final results: Constitutive session of the new National Assembly, followed by up to 90 days to elect a government.

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Coming issues

Following issues will cover the certification of results, preparations for the new National Assembly and the start of the presidential election campaign.

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Publisher and media enquiries

About Serbia Election Watch

Serbia Election Watch is produced by informal organisations of Serbians in the diaspora that support the student-led protests for democracy, the rule of law and against corruption in Serbia. It provides sourced, English-language briefings for journalists, policymakers and international institutions before, during and after the parliamentary elections of 25 October 2026.

Through the editor, journalists and policymakers can request introductions to student activists involved in the protests, newly elected representatives of the Student List, and Serbian diaspora organisations and activists around the world. Introductions are arranged subject to availability and consent.

Editorial and media contact
Informal association Holandija Dijaspora
holandija.dijaspora@gmail.com
Signal / WhatsApp: +31 6 1081 8506

Editorial note: This briefing identifies its publishers’ support for the student-led movement. News summaries are based on linked independent reporting, election-observation material and official institutional documents; official statements are cited as those institutions’ positions, not as independent verification. Attributed allegations and contested statements are not presented as independently established findings. All election figures are preliminary until RIK announces final results; seat estimates are our own calculation from RIK's vote count. Reporting updated through 30 October 2026 (RIK figures as of 20:35); edition dated for distribution on 31 October.

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© 2026 Serbia Election Watch · holandija.dijaspora@gmail.com